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Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start I'll make my worldwide predictions later. EPac's betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:07, October 28, 2013 (UTC) Here are my predictions for the Eastern Pacific: 21 tropical depressions, 21 tropical storms, 18 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 274 (give or take 10). A visual of my prediction can be found here. AndrewTalk To Me 01:49, January 3, 2014 (UTC) : Geez Andrew, that's a little too ''wild, don't you think? Here's my predictions: '''20 '''depressions, '''18 '''named storms, '''12 '''hurricanes, and '''5 '''major hurricanes. An incoming El Nino could make the EPac heat up a bit, but 10 majors and 18 hurricanes seem ''very ''unlikely IMO. Steven09876 05:24, January 4, 2014 (UTC) ::Expectations are rising as there is a potential El Nino bruing that could be exceptionally strong, or it could just flame out just like 2012. However, based on Levi Cowen's predication and analog years for the ATL (they ere 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2009 I believe). In all of those season, something really special happened (most bland out of all those seasons was 1991, and that was during a true PDO+ era). I've also seen 1974 and 2011 listed as anologs if the El Nino does not pan out based on the US winter pattern and global weather pattern overall. And both 74 and 11 are seasons that are memorable. I haven't seen any formal predictions though last month I went with 18-8-5, but may revise that to 18-7-6. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 05:54, March 15, 2014 (UTC) 12 more days till season starts! An El Nino could make this season extremely active, so prepare guys. Steve820 20:58, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :And the season has officially began!! The potentially very active Pacific season starts now! This is just the beginning of what might be a wild season (or should I say, a rollarcoaster ride!) Steve820 00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC) Pre-season predictions About five weeks from the start, and with the formation of an El Nino, exceptions have risen a bit. Right now, the WPAC and SPAc are active as well. Really second half of SHEM has been quite impressive. Let's get some formal predictions going. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 17:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC) :Maintaining my forecast from above. AndrewTalk To Me 20:34, April 6, 2014 (UTC) ::Lol, your NS count looks realistic, but you're cane and MH count is a bit high IMO. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 20:42, April 6, 2014 (UTC) ::El Niño looks to be the most powerful since 1997 I will put my odds at 20 to 23 ts 10 hurricanes and 6 to 8 majors. It may seem a really high prediction but with the upcoming strong El Niño might prediction well occur.Allanjeffs 01:08, April 10, 2014 (UTC) :::Because of what appears to be an extreme El Nino coming in, I'm revising my predictions to '''20-24' named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-7 majors. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record-breaking season this year, possibly on the level of 1992. Steve820 03:36, April 10, 2014 (UTC) :::::My predictions have been updated in my last blog post here. I'm thinking below normal ATL, above-normal EPac and WPac, and near-normal elsewhere. Ryan1000 19:48, April 11, 2014 (UTC) June 04E.DOUGLAS AoI: Tropical Wave (June 12) Over 23W. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:36, June 13, 2014 (UTC) :38W. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:57, June 16, 2014 (UTC) ::GFS develops this by early July. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:38, June 17, 2014 (UTC) :::This is the one we have to watch. GFS brings this to hurricane status. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 19:01, June 21, 2014 (UTC) ::::Not only this but the tropical wave preceding it as well, when that wave emerge off Mexico we could see a rise in activity. Also MJO is propagating towards the CPac right now, and later into the EPac. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:26, June 21, 2014 (UTC) :::::Noted on TWO, Douglas likely to form by late this week into the weekend. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:51, June 23, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Yeah, we'll probably see Douglas out of this by Friday. Hopefully we'll see another explosively intensifying storm that'll pull an Amanda or Cristina on us, even though I really doubt that'll happen simply because it's a bit too early to forecast this thing. But, who knows what could happen with this storm? Steve820 15:34, June 24, 2014 (UTC) :::::::No models are aggressive with it. It should form, and maybe affect land. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 20:24, June 24, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::As soon as I say that, models get aggressive and show this becoming a hurricane, and in some cases, a major. Some blast this into Jalisco, while tohers blast this machine into Cabo San Lucas or San Carlos. 12z GFS is very aggressive with this. 0/60 per the 5 day TWO. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] ::::::::::This tropical wave is in a interesting position right now. It is actually inland Mexico and should split into two, one in the BoC and one south of Mexico. Conditions should be very favorable ahead. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:13, June 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::Inland MX? I thought it is just south of the GOT. Is it on here, or is it near the BOC? YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:29, June 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::::To be precise, the wave axis is inland MX. Convection is most likely temporary and judging by satellite imagery you can identify the inverted V indicator of a wave axis. The low level cloud movements (yellow) indicates where the surface low will form. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:04, June 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::::::This might get interesting. I hope that the wave splits and the southern portion develops into Douglas and the northern portion becomes Arthur in the BoC, even though I kinda doubt that'll happen. As for this AOI it might become another major hurricane and another epic storm to track, though I'll try not to root for it since it might affect Mexico but I still expect it to get strong! Steve820 23:03, June 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::::::::It could become a major. 18z GFS was much less aggressive though. We'll see what the next TWO says. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 23:35, June 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::::::::::It's been stuck at 10/60 for like a day. GFS super aggressive with this, showing doomsday after doomsday run after run. Sometimes I think the model is in fantasy land, and that we all have high hopes (see also: Rosa 12). YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 05:05, June 27, 2014 (UTC) 96E.INVEST Up to 40/80 and invest'd. GFS has shifted west back time and is now on par with the rest of the guidance, though it still has as a slight threat to Baja California Sur and bringing rains to CA in 11days. IMO it has an very very very very favorable environment, shear never goes above 12kt and RH never drops below 70%, and STS remain 29-30C through day 5 per the SHIPS. SHIPS brings it to 99 knts, GFS takes it to 968 mbar, and LGEM brings it to 74 knts. I can't wait to see what HWRF says. As it is moving WNW to NW parallel to the coast, yet another major is possible. Yes, another. 3 majors before July 15? Possible IMO. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 19:19, June 27, 2014 (UTC) : This one looks real nice. I'd expect it to become Douglas by early next week, and I also expect it to become a major as well. Like Cristina and Amanda, it'll be out to sea, but if this becomes a cat 4, it'll probably be the earliest date for the season's 3rd category 4 (1992 holds the current record, with Frank becoming a 4 on July 17, this, if it explodes, will probably reach it on the 3rd/4th or so). Let's cross our fingers... 'Ryan1000' 20:45, June 27, 2014 (UTC) ::This invest is rather disorganized for now. However, development in the next few days is certainly possible, given the favorable conditions ahead of it. I predict a strong tropical storm at minimum from this system. AndrewTalk To Me 21:49, June 27, 2014 (UTC) :::::Very complex situation here. GFS now shows two systems one from this and another from the system behind it. Both could threaten Baja. 96E could be strong. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 22:21, June 27, 2014 (UTC) ::::::50/80. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 02:25, June 28, 2014 (UTC) :::::::I predict it'll become Douglas tomorrow. It's in amazing conditions and I wouldn't be surprised if future-Douglas became the 3rd major before July 15! This and the below AOI are ones to watch for development, this Pacific season is really going to be very active, unlike the struggling Atlantic! Steve820 03:25, June 28, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::60/80. GFS showing really complex shit and a interaction between this and the below systems. It looks like the other one is gonna be dominant. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 16:38, June 28, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::I still think it'll become Douglas though. It's in favorable conditions along with the other AOI, but my prediction is that this AOI will become dominant over the below AOI. Who knows what could happen? I predict this invest will strengthen to a powerful (potentially major) Douglas and the AOI that's behind it will strengthen to a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane before this becomes dominant. Or it might be the other way around. Steve820 16:58, June 28, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::Agree this will be the dominant system of the two.Allanjeffs 19:00, June 28, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Four-E Here we go! The NHC has determined enough convective organization is present to designate this cyclone Tropical Depression ''Four-E. Its current intensity is 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)/1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). The depression is forecast to accelerate under the influence of a guiding trough, but interaction with Invest 97E behind it may be a key factor in its movement. Intensitywise, its large size will prevent any major intensification, despite a favorable large-scale environment. The NHC forecast is slightly less aggressive than some forecast models, predicting a 50 knot (60 mph) tropical storm. Say hello to our D'' name! AndrewTalk To Me 21:39, June 28, 2014 (UTC) :Because organization has seldom improved in the invest, the NHC has maintained Tropical Depression Four-E's intensity. As it nears a very strong ridge, it should begin to accelerate over the next few days. Low vertical wind shear, warm SST's, and a moist environment should favor additional intensification of the system. Due to the nature of Four-E, it should not get much stronger than 55 knots (65 mph) in the next three days, as the NHC expects. Dry air and cool SST's should prompt weakening afterwards. AndrewTalk To Me 03:24, June 29, 2014 (UTC) :::I don't expect it to get too strong either, it has a slight chance of pulling off a quick stint of intensification to become a hurricane, but I wouldn't count on it. And 97E behind it won't become much, 4-E might even absorb it completely. 'Ryan1000' 12:26, June 29, 2014 (UTC) :::::This thing won't intensify much since it's moving fast. I would not rule out a hurricane though. 97E won't be absorbed by 4E since 97E is moving slower than 4E. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 16:54, June 29, 2014 (UTC) ::::::It's still a depression on its 4th advisory. Come on! You're presented with favorable conditions yet you still can't strengthen! Must be its large size, its fast movement, or its proximity to 97E that's causing it. But still, I wouldn't rule out a hurricane due to the relatively favorable conditions. I predict this depression will peak as a 75 mph Hurricane Douglas. Steve820 18:44, June 29, 2014 (UTC) ::::::No, it's not a TD anymore. It was revised in the ATCF to make it a TS. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 18:49, June 29, 2014 (UTC) :::::::I never check ATCF though :P, but hopefully the NHC declares it a tropical storm soon. Steve820 18:55, June 29, 2014 (UTC) :::::::18z ATCF brings revises both 12z and 18z to 30 knts. Wtf. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 18:56, June 29, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Tropical Depression Four-E's cloud pattern has not become better organized at all, and convection is actually decreasing. TAFB and SAB estimates are at 2.5 and 2.0, not influencing any intensity changes per the NHC. Due to its proximity to a strong subtropical ridge, the depression should continue to accelerate until a mid- to upper-level shortwave moves into California, prompting a slow westward movement. Despite low shear and warm SST's, Four-E's large size and poor organization will prompt only gradual intensification, with dry air taking over in a couple of days. The forecast NHC peak has been lowered to 50 knots (60 mph). Steve and Ryan, I would be really hesitant to believe this depression will become a hurricane, given its unfortunate setbacks. The JTWC reports the same windspeed measures with gusts of 40 knots (45 mph), and expects a similar peak intensity. AndrewTalk To Me 21:27, June 29, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::I would not rule out a hurricane. Conditions looks decent for the next two or so days. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 22:07, June 29, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::Interestingly enough, this quite resemble Douglas 08. I wouldn't count too much on it blowing up, but you never know. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:17, June 29, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::it also resembles Nadine when it first formed. It has that CATL look to it. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 22:43, June 29, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::Its big size is its worst enemy, it if it can bypass that it might strength. The worst enemy for the depression is the depression itself. YE you look like you are always more interested in the Epac XD right? I am the same in the Atlantic.Allanjeffs 22:58, June 29, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::::Yes. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 23:03, June 29, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::::NHC ATCF makes it 35 knts. So, Douglas is here. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 01:33, June 30, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Douglas Yep, the NHC has now upgraded it. I still expect it to become a minimal hurricane at most. Steve820 02:59, June 30, 2014 (UTC) : Eh, it'll more likely become a mid-level to strong TS than a hurricane, NHC doesn't make it much stronger than it is now. 'Ryan1000' 10:21, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::Well, it's now forecast to go no higher than 40 kts, and with Elida not forecast to strengthen beyond where it is now, that just means we're only gonna get two weaklings out of this. Great. Next! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:11, June 30, 2014 (UTC) :::(edit conflict) Yeah, it's advisory 8...and still 40 mph. Maybe it'll only peak as a weak TS I guess? Two weaklings in a row, c'mon EPac! Hopefully Fausto will become something strong! Steve820 15:13, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Douglas simply too large to deepen. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 16:10, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Should die from here, not expect to strength more as ingesting dry air now, the NHC says it might not even be a ts anymore. He might not last more than 2 days so far this has been the weakest storm of the season.Allanjeffs 20:44, June 30, 2014 (UTC) :::::::How can it be ingesting dry air if there is no wind shear? No, the NHC did not say that :P ASCAT has the low bias and is all in all, shitty. I think this could intensify slightly. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:06, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Douglas still is attempting to hold on. Dvorak estimates remain the same, and cloud top temperatures have been slowly warming. Unfortunately, time is out for Douglas, as Allan mentioned. Its peak intensity of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h)/1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg) might be it. It should continue moving northwestwards into a subtropical ridge weakness and then move westwards after becoming a remnant vortex. First epic fail of the 2014 PHS... AndrewTalk To Me 21:26, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::I don't expect it to do much more either. Elida might be more eventful though. 'Ryan1000' 22:39, June 30, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::Well, I guess YE was right on this one, Douglas deepened 3mb and is now 40kts. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 01:27, July 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::Somehow someway it deepened. 40 knts per ATCF. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 01:29, July 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::::I wasn't surprised that happened, but I think it has reached its peak. Douglas should weaken from here on out. What an epic fail! Steve820 04:47, July 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::::Agreed, it was a fail, and may have peaked, but tbh, it looks slightly better now than it ever did. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 04:50, July 1, 2014 (UTC) Briefly went down to 35 kts earlier and has now curiously re-intensified to 40 kts/1001 mbar. Shouldn't last, but it's nice to see Douglas is at least trying. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:47, July 1, 2014 (UTC) :Convection is deepening in Douglas's circulation, and TAFB Dvorak estimates are at 3.0 with UW estimates of 2.6. Despite a lack of shear, decreasing SST's and increasing dry air will prompt degeneration into a vortex in approximately 72 hours, per the NHC and JTWC. Due to a subtropical ridge to the north of the storm, it should continue to slow down and eventually turn westwards as it becomes shallower. To be honest, if Douglas was smaller in size than 105 miles (165 km), I think we could have seen a near-hurricane system right now. AndrewTalk To Me 21:31, July 1, 2014 (UTC) ::Michael Douglas and Catherine Zeta-Jones says NO. Anyway... if I had to make Douglas a bit stronger, why not carry him all the way to the Isle of Man? Just like Elida in Ohio, Douglas in Isle of Man! I know he was a LOLEPICFAIL, but that should power him up a bit. Lol. And yes, Andy, if he was another Marco, then HOLY CRIKEY ALMIGHTY here comes Amanda and Christina combined together. Dirrty storm. “i liek turtlez 23:20, July 1, 2014 (UTC) :::I wish it wasn't so large of a storm either. I wanted the name '''Douglas '''to be used for a hurricane, but looks like that isn't the case due to its large size! Instead of getting a hurricane, I got a weakling 45 mph TS. At least it isn't as bad as Elidafail though, Douglas actually tried even though it really failed just because of it's large size and a few other factors I think. Steve820 02:20, July 2, 2014 (UTC) ::::For a storm with the disadvantages it has, Douglas is holding on very well. Nevertheless, convection is very quickly getting disorganized, and visible satellite imagery show dry air penetrating the storm's circulation. With decreasing SST's increasing the unfavorable conditions around Douglas, the NHC forecast degeneration into a tropical depression in ~12 hours and then a remnant vortex in ~36 hours. A mid-level ridge building over the Western United States should steer Douglas northwestward and then accelerate it west-northwestwards, and a second low-level ridge will take the weakening storm in a more westwards motion. The current NHC intensity is 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h)/1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg), and the current JTWC intensity is 40 knots (45 mph) gusting to 50 knots (60 mph). Liz, in reply to your comment above: A.) Douglas should NOT even come close to the British Isles, let alone Mexico, and B.) Elida has become a remnant low. AndrewTalk To Me 21:25, July 2, 2014 (UTC) :::::Um, I'm pretty sure Liz was just joking. Steve820 23:34, July 2, 2014 (UTC) Douglas is hanging on admirably well for a storm that never strengthened beyond 40 kts. Granted, it's at 35 now, and its time is running out, but it gets a gold star for effort. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:27, July 3, 2014 (UTC) : Douglas is still 40 mph as of the latest advisory. I give credit for it trying, I also can't believe it's still alive when it only peaked at 40 kts even though it's entering unfavorable conditions! Steve820 15:59, July 3, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Douglas Douglas tried long and hard against the wind shear and cool SST's despite its size. But...the battle is being lost. Its LLCC is located just to the west of a small area of deep convection. The depression should continue to weaken over cooler SST's and dry air, with degeneration to a remnant low expected within 24 hours. Douglas is continuing to move northwestwards, but a low-level to mid-level ridge should accelerate it west-northwestwards over the next few days. A very slow, painful death is expected from the depression, with dissipation not expected for another five days. Douglas tried so hard yet failed badly intensitywise. Its current intensity is 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)/1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). The JTWC still claims Douglas to be a tropical storm with winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). AndrewTalk To Me 21:04, July 3, 2014 (UTC) 05E.ELIDA AoI: Tropical Wave (June 16-17) New wave off Africa. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:57, June 16, 2014 (UTC) :GFS shows this in the long-range. It could be Elida. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:30, June 24, 2014 (UTC) :::Nevermind. This should just go by and many form in the CPHC AOR. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 20:16, June 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::NVm, 10/20. GFS shows this developing and interacting with 96E. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 02:22, June 28, 2014 (UTC) :::::I predict we'll see Elida from this by next week. Steve820 03:27, June 28, 2014 (UTC) ::::::20/30. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 16:39, June 28, 2014 (UTC) 97E.INVEST This tropical wave has been designated Invest ''97E, per Wunderground. Despite currently having disorganized showers and thunderstorms, I believe there could be a window for development as it moves west-northwestwards. Its chances for formation are currently at 30% for the next two days and 50% for the next five. The computer models are very split over this system. BAMM and BAMS steer it near Mexico, while BAMD, LBAR, CLIP, and IVCN show it getting dragged by Tropical Depression Four-E. My personal forecast for Invest 97E is a 35 to 40 knot (40 to 45 mph) weak tropical storm. AndrewTalk To Me 21:45, June 28, 2014 (UTC) :No offense, but those models you mentioned are absolute garbage models, none of them are global and they are simple trajectory models based on parabolas. BAMM uses just 850 hPa to 400 hPa layers as guidance (which only accounts lower-mid level steering). I think this has a lot more potential than 4E as most models bring it close to land. A weakness in the ridge will form next week, and this could recurve and explode. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:29, June 28, 2014 (UTC) ::Agreed with HS. The BAMM family of models are 70s technology, they are shit. CLIPER is better, but not great, but with re-curving storms it's bad. Still, outflow from 4E should hinder development for now. Just like how Henriette 13 was hindered at first since it was close to Gil. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 04:28, June 29, 2014 (UTC) :::It's still at 30% (50%) and still has a chance to become Elida. Proximity to 4-E may inhibit development though. Steve820 18:46, June 29, 2014 (UTC) ::::Shower activity has become more concentrated and organized in Invest 97E, but as Steve said, proximity to Four-E may hinder any development. Afterwards, conditions should be gradually favorable for some development. AndrewTalk To Me 21:30, June 29, 2014 (UTC) :::::50/60. Almost a TD. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:25, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::::I think it'll become a TD tomorrow assuming Douglas doesn't hinder it too much. Steve820 03:01, June 30, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Expect this to be upgrade straight to ts Elida as there are ts winds base on the TWO the NHC post at 2am.Allanjeffs 08:18, June 30, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Btw expect this to not strength a lot, expect a peak at most of 50mph.Allanjeffs 08:22, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Just so you know, this thing already has officially 50mph winds, 60mph based on ASCAT and 65mph based on ADT. Just having trouble closing circulation, open to the NW due to anticyclone aloft. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 08:35, June 30, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Elida It's been upgraded. It is expected to peak at where it is now, but I expect it to reach 60-65 mph before dying. Steve820 15:09, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::For the 5th time in history, there has been 5 EPAC storms pre-July. Other years were 1992, 1990, 1984, and 1985. Imagine if 90E developed in early May. 4 EPAc storms in June ties for 2nd most, behind 1985 and tied with 1990. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 16:13, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::Pretty active start, but unlike Cristina and Amanda, Douglas and Elida won't become hurricanes, or much stronger than they are now. Btw, why has no one updated the active storms header yet? :/ 'Ryan1000' 20:33, June 30, 2014 (UTC) :::::I would not rule out a hurricane for Elida once shear decreases. Douglas should clear out dry air. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 20:40, June 30, 2014 (UTC) :::::Not know how to do it, I am waiting for Genevieve, I love that name.Allanjeffs 20:41, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::::I am in complete agreement with YE on this one, not only could it become a strong hurricane, but I believe it could have great impact on Mexico as well. I think it should peak as a solid 90kt hurricane. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:31, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::::I don't think it'll get that deep, at least within the next 3-5 days. I'd say anywhere from 55-80 knts. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:52, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Well, the close proximity it'll have to Mexico is what worries me about Elida the most. The circulation itself will probably remain offshore, but it'll still bring some flooding and mudslides to parts of the coast. As for intensity...NHC currently doesn't expect one, and I'm not buying that it'll become a (strong) one just yet, but if it does, make it well out to sea while it's doing so. 'Ryan1000' 22:28, June 30, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Its not being sheared by Douglas is being sheared by something in the gulf, I might say that Elida might strength to 65mph but nothing more, because once shear stop dry air will come to affect herAllanjeffs 00:18, July 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::How can you have dry air be a negative factor without moderate wind shear? '''Stable/cool' air, maybe, but not dry air :P Even then, Douglas is gonna clear all that up. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 00:52, July 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::You really want this to strength. I usually don't for the epac and now that the Atlantic have a shot.i am not paying many attention to the Epac,but we will see.Allanjeffs 01:20, July 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::I don't '''really' want it to strengthen, and it won't for the next day or so, just asking a question :P YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 01:28, July 1, 2014 (UTC) (←)Elida has the same pressure as Douglas, but at 45 knots (50 mph) already. I think it will struggle to intensify due to strong northwesterly shear. After erratically moving offshore of Mexico, Elida should be dragged westwards by a subtropical wave. Allan, just wait a few more days for the shear to relax. Elida could easily become a hurricane 5-7 days for now. Also, the Atlantic could easily get real boring this year due to the oncoming El Nino. I am rather biased towards the WPAC right now; they have not seen anything in two weeks. AndrewTalk To Me 01:31, July 1, 2014 (UTC) :Regarding the WPAC, the GFS shows two very powerful system there this weekend. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 01:33, July 1, 2014 (UTC) ::I also hope the WPac gets more active during the next few weeks. It's been unusually inactive over there! Anyways, back to Elida, I hope it will become a hurricane in the long run. Unlike Douglasfail, Elida should cause impacts in Mexico and hopefully potentially strengthen to a hurricane like I said. Steve820 04:50, July 1, 2014 (UTC) ::I have a feeling the WPAC will be very active this month. I wouldn't wishcast too much (though tbh, strength doesn't matter that much in terms of impact in this case, size matters more). I think Elida will stay somewhat weak for the next few days, then deepen a bit as it heads west. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 05:16, July 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::The Wpac might explode in the second half like last year.Anyways GFS AND CMC are showing twin cyclones I believe majors so it might be active for July and August but for the past three years the deadliest storm have come in November or December.Allanjeffs 08:44, July 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::Down to 35 kts/1005 mbar and now forecast to degenerate into a remnant low instead of restrengthening. Sorry YE :( --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:45, July 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Yikes, the strong northwesterly wind shear ate up Elida's circulation. It is just a bunch of low clouds swirling together, and many models degenerate the system to a low/trough within a few days. Little motion is expected from Elida in the next couple of days, and it should eventually turn westwards. The tropical storm warning for Mexico has been discontinued, but rainfall totals of one to three inches, gale-force gusts, and heavy squalls should continue to affect the coast. Second fail of the season!!! AndrewTalk To Me 21:36, July 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::::LOL XD make me laugh your last sentence. I knew I had a feeling she would fail. shear was to much for her.Allanjeffs 22:25, July 1, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Shear killing it now. Man, this MJO pulse hasn't been what was expected. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 23:08, July 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::::I wonder if this storm crosses into Ohio... There is actually a town in Ohio called.... '''Elida. '(Yikes.) ::::::What a fail this storm is. “i liek turtlez 23:18, July 1, 2014 (UTC) No, just no. 23:21, July 1, 2014 (UTC) You just said it was a fail, anon! “i liek turtlez 23:22, July 1, 2014 (UTC) : Ok, so, even though it caused slight effects in Mexico, it's an EPIC FAIL!! Elida, you've officially dissappointed all of us here at Hurricanes Wiki. We thought you had a hurricane potential (particularly me and YE), but you just had ''to let the wind shear destroy you! Congratulations, you're the second epic fail of the season and the biggest fail! Hopefully the name Fausto would be used for something strong. Steve820 02:24, July 2, 2014 (UTC) ::We must've gotten too many good storms earlier...--Isaac829 02:26, July 2, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Elida Wow, I guess I was right the first time, neither Elida or Douglas will become hurricanes. Down to a TD now and forecast to dissipate later today. 'Ryan1000' 03:45, July 2, 2014 (UTC) I am not dissappoint I had a feeling that she wouldn't strength, I am even impressed she could reach 50mph and I might say she might rest in peace as I believe tomorrow will be her last day.Allanjeffs 04:46, July 2, 2014 (UTC) :RIP in peace Elidarino, think I overhyped this too much. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 05:27, July 2, 2014 (UTC) :And she is done, she is no longer with us. She became the first female in the list to be a fail.Hope Genevieve is not like this.Allanjeffs 09:00, July 2, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida Bah humbug. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 12:28, July 2, 2014 (UTC) :Actually, Elida did not even affect Mexico because it was that weak. Girl, what happened to your power? AndrewTalk To Me 21:27, July 2, 2014 (UTC) ::Fun fact: this year's Elida was the weakest incarnation to date. The only other Elida not to reach hurricane strength (Elida '96) made it to 55 kts/994 mbar; this year, Elida went no further than 45 kts/1003 mbar. This storm certainly was not... ''elite. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:30, July 2, 2014 (UTC) :::Elida probs affected Mexico. Have not had the chance to digg through impact quite yet. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 22:12, July 2, 2014 (UTC) ::::It probably brought just rain and light winds to Mexico. Bye, Elida! A few words that sum you up perfectly: SUPER EPIC FAIL AND DISGRACE TO TCs! Steve820 23:39, July 2, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (June 23) AoI: Tropical Wave (June 23) New wave off Africa, now 48W - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 04:32, June 28, 2014 (UTC) :Could possibly become Fausto. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 16:13, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::Right S of GoT right now, in the EPac. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:32, June 30, 2014 (UTC) :::Dissipated some time ago. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:13, July 3, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (Mid-Atlantic) AoI: Tropical Wave (Mid-Atlantic) This wave formed mid-Atlantic, currently over Isthmus of Tehuantepec. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:13, July 3, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (June 26) AoI: Tropical Wave (June 26) New wave off Africa. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 04:31, June 28, 2014 (UTC) :::0/20. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 15:18, July 3, 2014 (UTC) ::::Currently over Honduras. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:13, July 3, 2014 (UTC) :::::This AOI could become a tropical wave later this week well to the southwest of Mexico. Chances of formation for the next five days are now at '''30%'. AndrewTalk To Me 01:23, July 4, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (June 30) AoI: Tropical Wave (June 30) New wave off Africa. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:32, June 30, 2014 (UTC) :Over 65-70W. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:13, July 3, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (July 3) AoI: Tropical Wave (July 3) New wave off Africa. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:13, July 3, 2014 (UTC) July Welcome to July in the Eastern Pacific! As you can see, we have been off to an extremely active start. For the fifth time in history, five tropical storms formed before July 1, with a record two becoming Category 4 hurricanes and Elida becoming the earliest fifth storm in a season since Celia '92 (right, YE?)! Now that's quite a way to begin the season! And I only see July becoming more active. My predictions - 8''' depressions, '''6 named storms, 5''' hurricanes (counting a personal forecast for Elida), and '''3 major hurricanes, with an ACE of ~55 (give or take 15). AndrewTalk To Me 02:20, July 1, 2014 (UTC) :I'm predicting a total of 6 '''depressions and named storms, '''4 hurricanes, and 2''' major hurricanes. Individual storm predictions: :* Hurricane Fausto - July 4 > July 12 - Category 2 (100 mph) - No landmasses affected :* Hurricane Genevieve - July 9 > July 16 - Category 1 (85 mph) - No landmasses affected :* Hurricane Hernan - July 17 > July 29 - Category 5 (165 mph) - Slight effects in Mexico in its formative stages :* Tropical Storm Iselle - July 19 > July 22 - Tropical Storm (50 mph) - No landmasses affected, eventually gets absorbed into Hernan :* Hurricane Julio - July 26 > August 4 - Category 3 (120 mph) - Strikes Baja Peninsula as a Category 1 :* Tropical Storm Karina - July 31 > August 2 - Tropical Storm (45 mph) - No landmasses affected :I feel like I'm being a bit optimistic, but oh well. We'll see how this month will go, hopefully it'll be an epic/awesome month for the EPac! Steve820 05:00, July 1, 2014 (UTC) ::Anddrew your are correct, earliest storm #5 since Celia 92. but Steven, you're a little bit optimistic. Even though the GFS has showing pre-Douglas and Elida striking land at some point, I'd be surprised if we get a landfall in MX. Not counting Elida and Douglas, I am going with 4/1/1. I think we are in a set up that does not favor intense system, and favors a lot of systems, albeit weak ones due to northerly ITCZ and vertical instability. Looks like the midsummer drought out there that you typically see 3-4 weeks from now. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 05:13, July 1, 2014 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Mine: *All - 0% --Isaac829 21:10, May 25, 2014 (UTC) YE's: #Amanda: 1% since it was epic. #Boris: 3% killed a few ppl #Cristina 1% As epic as Amanda. Since when is Amanda a fish storm? It killed 3 people. Cristina affected land as well, FTR. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :There is no need for this section! We're only one fish storm in, for crying out loud! Please wait until later. --'Dylan (Hurricane 99) 21:22, May 25, 2014 (UTC) I agree with Dylan. It's way 'too early for this section, but I'm still gonna post mine anyways: *Amanda: 1% - Didn't significantly affect land but was an epic and awesome storm that surprised us by strengthening to strongest May storm in EPac on record! It caused the deaths of 3-4 people which is why it is 1%. *Boris: 2% - Caused destruction in Central America but most likely it isn't getting retired because it only caused 5 deaths. *Cristina: 0% - It was also an epic and awesome storm, similar to Amanda, but it isn't getting the boot due to the storm not affecting land. *Douglas: 0% - First fail of the season but at least it kinda tried. It was a large storm, so that's exactly why it failed. *Elida: 0.1% - Even bigger EPIC FAIL than Douglas but since it caused slight Mexican effects I'll give it a 0.1% until I see damage/death reports. If it didn't cause any damage or deaths, then Elida, you're a REAL BIG FAIL! Steve820 21:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC) (last updated 02:29, July 2, 2014 (UTC)) ::(Edit conflict) Dylan, Amanda was ''definitely not a fish storm because of its extremely rare intensity. AndrewTalk To Me 21:31, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::Whether or not a storm is a fish has zilch to do with its intensity. Fish storms are not necessarily weak storms; they are storms that do not even do so much as breathe on any landmasses during their existence. Amanda falls into that category. Granted, it was still a very impressive hurricane, but a fish storm nonetheless. --'''Dylan (Hurricane 99) 21:39, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::Here's mine (because I want to get a head start (Sorry, Dylan)): (i'll remove the underline when we're further in the season) :::Amanda: 0%- While it was an impressive storm, it isn't going to be retired because it hasn't affected land. :::Boris: 3%- Didn't actually track this storm but I'll give it a 3 because it caused six fatalities. :::Cristina:-'' currently active'' :::leeboy100 (talk) 17:21, June 10, 2014 (UTC) :::Just because something was epic it doesn't mean she needs to get points to be honest right now her chance is 0% it might go up if her remnants or whatever is left gives rain to Mexico and the USA,but I believe they are going to be more beneficial that harmful.Allanjeffs 22:42, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::Isaac, can we seriously wait on starting this section from now on? We shouldn't begin the retirements section until we either 1) have a decent number of storms, or 2) have something worth retiring. Beginning this right after the "A" storm (which didn't even affect land) is premature and we won't get a meaningful discussion out of it, it's pretty obvious to everyone that Amanda won't get retired. Wait a little more from now on. Ryan1000 04:55, May 26, 2014 (UTC) :::::So Amanda may get 1% after all she killed three to four people in Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:31, June 3, 2014 (UTC) Eh, we don't have much right now, but I can't resist retirement predictions, they're fun as hell: *Amanda - 1% - That 1% is just because of the few deaths in Mexico, not for being epic. *Boris - 3% - More impact than Amanda, but still not enough for retirement. *Cristina - 0% - No damage, no deaths, no retirement. Nuff said. *Douglas - 0% - ^^ *Elida - 0% - Haven't seen any impact reports yet, if there is something I'll change this. Ryan1000 10:21, June 30, 2014 (UTC) :Cristina wasn't a *total* fishspinner. IT passed near Socorro Island (has roughly 200 ppl on it) and brought waves to MX. Odv staying though :P 20:42, June 30, 2014 (UTC) Alright, here are mine as of June 30: *Amanda — <1% Nope. *Boris — ≤1% Nope. *Cristina — <1% Nope. *Douglas — <1% Nope. *Elida — ≤1% Probably nope. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:39, June 30, 2014 (UTC) : Passing by a (relatively) unpopulated island doesn't count in my book. And waves to Mexico, eh, at least it didn't kill anyone like Amanda did. Still a 0% :P Ryan1000 22:31, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::Since we have reached the "D" name, I will post my predictions for the EPAC. #Amanda - 1% - It caused three fatalities and damaged several roads and structures across Western Mexico, but these impacts do not even hold a candle to last year's Manuel. #Boris - 2% - Widespread impact and six fatalities have been reported across southern Mexico and Guatemala. I doubt retirement however, given Agatha's snub. #Cristina - <1% - Some waves along the Mexican coastline, but nothing too severe. #Douglas - TBA - Still Active #Elida - 0% - Elida did the best she could against the heavy wind shear and Douglas. Nevertheless, she miserably failed. Not even Mexico witnessed anything from her!!! AndrewTalk To Me 01:36, July 1, 2014 (UTC) We have enough storms for me: *Amanda: 2% - 3 deaths won't cut it, but damn, this was certainly an excellent early-season surprise. *Boris: 8% - Caused more impact than Amanda, but probably not enough for retirement. *Cristina: 0% - It may have been almost as strong as Amanda and set several records for its early-season intensity, but a fish is a fish is a fish, regardless of how impressive or powerful it is. *Douglas: 0% - http://img3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130917044500/glee/images/b/bc/You_tried_.png *Elida: 0% - http://ih1.redbubble.net/image.13056045.3033/fc,550x550,white.jpg --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:58, July 1, 2014 (UTC) Here's mine: *Amanda: 1% - Gave us an early season surprise, but its 3 deaths won't cut it. *Boris: 5% - Impacts weren't significant enough. *Cristina: 1% - It became a monster, but it was a fish. *Douglas: 0% - He tried, but he failed. *Elida: 0% - She didn't even try. - HurricaneHunter99 (talk) 17:27, July 2, 2014 (UTC) :??? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:54, July 2, 2014 (UTC) ::Dylan, is that a doppelganger account of yours? AndrewTalk To Me 21:30, July 2, 2014 (UTC) :::Nah, just someone who wishes they could be like me ;) --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:03, July 2, 2014 (UTC)